2024 Races for the Senate
Introduction:
The two most important 2024 Senate races for people who want good government and honest, capable Senators are in deep blue Maryland, where I support Larry Hogan the Republican and in deep red Missouri where I support Lucas Kunce, the Democrat.
But politics is no longer about electing good people or governing. It is about winning at all costs.
The Republicans will almost certainly take control of the Senate in 2024 because West Virginia will certainly flip, several states – MD, MI, MT, AZ, OH and WI could flip from blue to red, and I can’t find any states likely to flip red to blue.
The two states chronically targeted by Democrats – TX and FL -- are out of reach.
Two factors might prevent a huge red wave in the Senate.
· The quality of republican candidates in many competitive states, including MT, AZ, OH and WI is low. Republicans also failed to expand the map by nominating better candidates in VA, MN, and NJ.
· Republican opposition to abortion combined with statewide referendums on abortion in several states creates a headwind for Republican candidates, in purple states but appears to not have a major impact in deep red states.
The Biden Administration’s response to the war in the middle east may hurt Democratic candidates in several different ways.
· Supporters of the Arab cause have threatened to oppose Biden because of America’s support of Israel.
· Supporters of Israel are increasingly concerned that the Biden Administration’s pressure on Israel for a cease fire is incentivizing Hamas and Hezbollah to continue with their violence.
· Centrist Democratic party candidates who refuse to condemn the “progressive” supporters of Hamas, like Bowman and Tliab, will lose votes from supporters of Israel.
The rest of this memo examines key Senate races.
Key Senate Races:
West Virginia: West Virginia used to be a Democratic state is now one of the most reliable Republican states in the country. The retirement of Joe Manchin, the last electable West Virginia Democrat marks the end of an era.
Maryland: Typically, solid blue/red states elect solid blue/red Senators, and the only competitive races are in the few purple states. But Larry Hogan won reelection as governor of Maryland with over 55 percent of the vote, supports abortion rights, and supports Israel. Hogan has a real shot at flipping MD red.
Michigan: Both likely candidates in Michigan, Elissa Slotkin for the Democrats and Mike Rogers for the Republicans, have great resumes. Mideast politics is emerging as a major issue in a state with a high proportion of Muslim and Jewish voters. Muslim and anti-Israel voters may not support Slotkin a Jewish pro-Israel congresswoman and pro-Israel voters may not support her because of her inability to condemn pro-Hamas “progressives.”
Arizona: Polls in Arizona have Trump outperforming the Republican Senate candidate Ricky Lake. Kari Lake basically declared war on many Republicans in AZ after her defeat in the 2022 gubernatorial race and she may both lose and drag Trump down.
Montana: Can a popular Democratic incumbent senator withstand a challenge in deep red Montana against an untested pro-Trump candidate? Incumbents always have an advantage but there aren’t many Democrats left in deep red states. This race is a tossup.
Ohio: Can a popular Democrat incumbent win an election in a state that used to be purple but now appears red? Just two years ago JD Vance beat a popular centrist challenger in Ohio, but Bernie Moreno is weaker than Vance.
Texas: Ted Cruz should be vulnerable, however, Colin Allred does not have a base outside his district near Dallas and his flip flop on immigration will hurt him in most of Texas, especially rural areas near the border. Texas Democrats haven’t won statewide since Ann Richards and their resources should be used in Texas House races.
Florida: Florida is now solidly red as evidenced by voter affiliation statistics. Jewish voters and foreign policy hawks could turn on Biden if Biden’s pressure on Israel incentivizes more terrorism. The abortion referendumgives Florida Democrats some hope but FL is a lottery ticket and Democrats would be better off spending money on key congressional races.
Missouri: Missouri is a solid red state. But Josh Hawley is not well liked by independent voters because of extreme views on reproductive rights, the role of women and men, the role of Christianity in America, and a isolationist foreign policy where he is wrong on both Israel and Ukraine. Lucas Kunce, an ex-marine opposing Josh Hawley, is the perfect alternative to Hawley. Democrats should highlight this race.
Authors Note: PolicyPlusPolitics is preparing a comprehensive state-by-state analysis of the race for the House. Reports on House races in three swing states are available now.
Posts on 2024 House Races by State
· Michigan