I am going offline for a bit because of travel and other obligations, but before I do, I am publishing three related essays about control of the House. Two present the underlying race-by-race data. This second data essay examines Democratic-held seats that Republicans could capture in 2026; the companion essay examines Republican-held seats that Democrats could capture. A third essay will explain what the two lists currently imply about House control and how they can be used to track the election.
Bottom line. This revised memo identifies 35 Democratic-held House seats that could move to Republicans in 2026. Six currently favor Republicans, four are tossups, five lean Democratic and seventeen are longer-shot Republican opportunities rated likely Democratic. Three additional seats—LA-06, TN-09 and TX-09—appear effectively certain to flip Republican because of redistricting.
Rating note. Except where otherwise indicated, the ratings in this memo are from the 270toWin consensus forecast as of September 16, 2026. The consensus combines ratings from multiple election forecasters, including the Cook Political Report. The “Safe Republican after redistricting” designations for LA-06, TN-09 and TX-09 are my assessments rather than published consensus ratings. Ratings describe the current competitiveness of each race and should not be interpreted as precise probabilities.
House races in alphabetical order
AL-02 Rhett Marques R and Shomari Figures D
Likely Republican. Boundary changes have converted Figures’s Black Belt seat from a Democratic anchor into one of the clearest Republican pickup opportunities. Marques begins with the structural advantage, so the principal question is whether Figures can build enough crossover support to overcome the new district’s Republican tilt.
CA-13 Kevin Lincoln R and Adam Gray D
Likely Democratic. Gray won this Central Valley seat narrowly in 2024, and Lincoln returns with a familiar profile and an established campaign network. The new California map is friendlier to Democrats, but the district’s agricultural economy and history of close races keep it on the extended watch list.
CA-21 Kyle Kirkland R and Jim Costa D
Likely Democratic. Costa has represented the Central Valley for decades, but Republicans see a long-shot opening in a district where water, farm policy and living costs can cut across party lines. Kirkland would need a strong Republican year and meaningful erosion in Costa’s local advantage.
CA-45 Chuong Vo R and Derek Tran D
Likely Democratic. Tran won his first term by a very small margin, making his Orange County and southeast Los Angeles County seat an obvious Republican target. California’s revised map now gives Democrats more room, so Vo needs both strong Asian American outreach and a favorable national environment.
FL-09 Dan Green R and Darren Soto D
Likely Republican. Florida’s new map sharply improved the Republican position in this central Florida district. Soto’s incumbency and Puerto Rican community ties give Democrats a base, but Green is favored because the district’s underlying partisanship moved substantially to the right.
FL-14 Mike Beltran R and Kathy Castor D
Tossup. Redistricting turned Castor’s Tampa-area seat into a genuine general-election contest. Castor has long-standing local roots, while Beltran can run on the district’s new Republican lean, making turnout and candidate familiarity decisive.
FL-22 Casey Askar R and Pia Dandiya D
Leans Republican. This open South Florida seat was reshaped in a way that favors Republicans, and Askar begins with the stronger partisan baseline. Dandiya can still compete through suburban and minority turnout, but she must overcome both an open-seat disadvantage and the new map.
FL-25 Scott Singer R and Jared Moskowitz D
Tossup. Moskowitz’s moderate profile is well suited to a competitive Broward and Palm Beach district, but Singer brings a local executive record and a plausible suburban coalition. The race is a clean test of whether personal moderation can outrun a district moving toward Republicans.
IN-01 Barb Regnitz R and Frank Mrvan D
Likely Democratic. Northwest Indiana remains Democratic-leaning, but Mrvan’s 2024 margin was modest enough to attract Republican investment. Regnitz enters with a county-level base and competitive fundraising, although she still needs a strong Republican performance in the district’s suburban and working-class communities.
LA-06 Open all-party election
Safe Republican after redistricting. Louisiana dismantled the Baton Rouge-centered Democratic district that elected Cleo Fields. The replacement seat is built to elect a Republican, so this is best treated as a redistricting-driven transfer rather than a conventional persuasion contest.
ME-02 Paul LePage R and Matt Dunlap D
Leans Republican. The open northern Maine seat is one of the most important Democratic defenses in the country. LePage has statewide name recognition and the district’s presidential vote favors Republicans, while Dunlap’s long public-service record gives Democrats a locally credible nominee after Jared Golden’s departure.
MI-08 Thomas Smith R and Kristen McDonald Rivet D
Likely Democratic. This Flint-to-Saginaw district backed Trump while also electing McDonald Rivet, making it a natural crossover test. Smith’s unexpected primary win left Republicans with a less conventional nominee, while McDonald Rivet can run on incumbency and her moderate brand.
MN-02 Eric Pratt R and Matt Little D
Likely Democratic. Angie Craig left this closely watched suburban seat to seek the Senate nomination, which she lost, and Democrats chose former state senator Matt Little as her successor. Little ran to Craig’s left in the primary, so Pratt will try to make ideology and the national Democratic brand central in a district that has recently rewarded pragmatic candidates.
NH-01 Anthony DiLorenzo R and Stefany Shaheen D
Likely Democratic. Chris Pappas’s Senate bid created an open seat in a district with a long history of switching parties. Shaheen carries a powerful New Hampshire political name, while DiLorenzo needs the state’s ticket-splitting tradition to overcome a generally favorable Democratic environment.
NH-02 Lily Williams R and Maggie Goodlander D
Likely Democratic. Goodlander is a first-term incumbent in a district that usually leans Democratic but remains capable of close federal races. Williams offers Republicans a rematch, though she must expand beyond the coalition that fell short in 2024.
NJ-09 Rosie Pino R and Nellie Pou D
Likely Democratic. Pou’s diverse North Jersey district has become less overwhelmingly Democratic, and Republicans hope Pino can continue recent gains among Hispanic voters. Pou still benefits from incumbency and a strong Democratic organizational base, leaving this as an upset opportunity rather than a first-tier target.
NM-02 Greg Cunningham R and Gabe Vasquez D
Likely Democratic. Vasquez represents a sprawling border district where energy, immigration and public lands all matter. Cunningham must improve Republican performance around Las Cruces and the district’s Hispanic communities, while Vasquez can point to two victories in one of the nation’s most closely watched rematch territories.
NV-01 Carrie Buck R and Dina Titus D
Likely Democratic. Titus’s Las Vegas seat has become more competitive as Republicans improve with working-class and Hispanic voters. Buck needs those trends to continue, but Titus retains a durable urban base and a long record of winning difficult primaries and general elections.
NV-03 Marty O’Donnell R and Susie Lee D
Likely Democratic. Lee’s southern Nevada district combines affluent suburbs with fast-growing outer communities and has repeatedly produced expensive races. O’Donnell has a plausible path if economic dissatisfaction dominates, but Lee’s fundraising and established swing-district profile make her the favorite.
NV-04 Cody Whipple R and Steven Horsford D
Likely Democratic. Horsford’s district stretches from North Las Vegas into rural Nevada, creating a coalition that is broad but not automatic. Whipple must pair strong rural margins with gains in the Las Vegas Valley, while Horsford relies on incumbency and the district’s Democratic core.
NY-03 Michael LiPetri R and Tom Suozzi D
Leans Democratic. Suozzi’s Long Island and Queens seat is expensive, suburban and politically fluid. LiPetri will link Suozzi to unpopular national Democrats, while Suozzi’s moderate reputation and local experience give him an advantage in a district where ticket splitting still matters.
NY-04 Jeanine Driscoll R and Laura Gillen D
Likely Democratic. Gillen holds a Nassau County seat that produced one of the closest House races of 2022 before moving back to Democrats. Driscoll can compete on taxes, public safety and cost of living, but Gillen now has incumbency and a more favorable national setting.
NY-19 Peter Oberacker R and Josh Riley D
Likely Democratic. Riley’s Hudson Valley and Southern Tier district remains culturally and geographically mixed, with competitive margins outside the largest population centers. Oberacker’s state legislative base gives Republicans a credible challenger, although Riley starts ahead in current ratings.
NC-01 Laurie Buckhout R and Don Davis D
Tossup. North Carolina’s northeastern district is rural, heavily Black and increasingly Republican at the presidential level. Davis has repeatedly shown crossover strength, but Buckhout’s rematch campaign benefits from a map and national coalition that keep squeezing Democrats in rural counties.
OH-01 Eric Conroy R and Greg Landsman D
Leans Democratic. Landsman represents a Cincinnati-area district that is Democratic-leaning but not insulated from a strong Republican year. Conroy needs to consolidate outer suburban voters while preventing Landsman from using his moderate image to dominate Hamilton County.
OH-09 Derek Merrin R and Marcy Kaptur D
Tossup. Kaptur is the longest-serving woman in House history, but her northwest Ohio district has moved sharply toward Republicans. Merrin came close in 2024 and returns for a rematch in which Kaptur’s local brand again collides with the district’s Republican presidential preference.
OH-13 Carey Coleman R and Emilia Sykes D
Likely Democratic. Sykes’s Akron and Canton district remains competitive enough to draw Republican attention, even after the latest lines improved her position. Coleman needs a strong performance in Stark County and must reduce Sykes’s advantage in Summit County to make the race close.
TN-09 Brent Taylor R and Justin Pearson D
Safe Republican after redistricting. Tennessee’s new map dismantled the Memphis-based Democratic district and made a Republican pickup overwhelmingly likely. The contest is therefore more about the effect of redistricting and turnout than about the normal advantages of an incumbent party.
TX-09 Alex Mealer R and Leticia Gutierrez D
Safe Republican after redistricting. Texas redrew the Houston-area 9th District to favor Republicans, producing an open-seat race after the Democratic incumbent was displaced. Mealer begins with the map advantage, while Gutierrez must assemble a coalition capable of outrunning the district’s new partisan baseline.
TX-28 Tano Tijerina R and Henry Cuellar D
Leans Democratic. Cuellar remains one of the most conservative House Democrats and has survived repeated political and legal pressure in South Texas. Tijerina will try to build on Republican gains along the border, but Cuellar’s personal network and ideological distance from national Democrats remain significant defenses.
TX-32 Jace Yarbrough R and Dan Barrios D
Likely Republican. Redistricting transformed this Dallas-area open seat into favorable Republican territory. Yarbrough starts with the structural edge, and Barrios would need unusually strong suburban turnout to preserve Democratic control.
TX-34 Eric Flores R and Vicente Gonzalez D
Leans Democratic. Gonzalez’s Rio Grande Valley seat sits at the center of the region’s Republican shift. Flores can make the race close by sustaining recent GOP gains among Hispanic and working-class voters, while Gonzalez relies on incumbency and a long-standing local organization.
TX-35 Carlos De La Cruz Jr R and Johnny Garcia D
Leans Republican. The departure of Greg Casar left an open seat whose new configuration is much more favorable to Republicans. Garcia needs high turnout across the Austin-San Antonio corridor, while De La Cruz can run with the district’s redrawn partisan grain.
VA-07 Doug Ollivant R and Eugene Vindman D
Likely Democratic. Vindman’s exurban northern Virginia district remains competitive enough to monitor, especially if Republicans recover among military families and outer-suburban voters. Ollivant matches Vindman’s national-security biography, but the district’s recent Democratic trend gives the incumbent an edge.
WA-03 John Braun R and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez D
Leans Democratic. Gluesenkamp Perez has built a distinctive moderate brand in a southwestern Washington district that votes Republican for president. Braun is a strong state legislative recruit, making this a central test of whether candidate image can again overcome national partisanship.
Sources and scope
• The attached August 29, 2026 race-by-race probability appendix supplied the starting list and matchup names.
• The September 16, 2026 270toWin consensus forecast supplied the current non-safe seat universe and broad rating categories.
• Current candidate rosters and primary results were checked against Ballotpedia and state election reporting.
• The September 10, 2026 Missouri map rulings were checked against Reuters and the Associated Press.
Author’s note
Economic and Political Insights is a multi-topic blog covering economic policy, finance and investments, and politics. For the statistical forecast underlying this project, read Who Will Control the House in 2026?. Readers may also use this coupon for 50 percent off an annual subscription, reducing the annual price to $30.