I am going offline for a bit because of travel and other obligations, but before I do, I am publishing three related essays about control of the House. Two present the underlying race-by-race data. This second data essay examines Democratic-held seats that Republicans could capture in 2026; the companion essay examines Republican-held seats that Democrats could capture. A third essay will explain what the two lists currently imply about House control and how they can be used to track the election.
Bottom line. This revised memo identifies 35 Democratic-held House seats that could move to Republicans in 2026. Six currently favor Republicans, four are tossups, five lean Democratic and seventeen are longer-shot Republican opportunities rated likely Democratic. Three additional seats—LA-06, TN-09 and TX-09—appear effectively certain to flip Republican because of redistricting.
Rating note. Except where otherwise indicated, the ratings in this memo are from the 270 toWin consensus forecast as of September 16, 2026. The consensus combines ratings from multiple election forecasters, including the Cook Political Report. The “Safe Republican after redistricting” designations for LA-06, TN-09 and TX-09 are my assessments rather than published consensus ratings. Ratings describe the current competitiveness of each race and should not be interpreted as precise probabilities.
House races in alphabetical order
AL-02 Rhett Marques R and Shomari Figures D
Likely Republican. Boundary changes have converted Figures’s Black Belt seat from a Democratic anchor into one of the clearest Republican pickup opportunities. Marques begins with the structural advantage, so the principal question is whether Figures can build enough crossover support to overcome the new district’s Republican tilt.
Subscriber note: The full analysis below examines 35 Democratic-held seats, with candidate matchups, race ratings, and the factors shaping Republican pickup opportunities. Subscribe for this research and more analysis of elections, economic policy, and personal finance. Use this coupon for 50% off an annual subscription—$30 for the year.
