Electoral math and the selection of Walz.
It is highly likely that Kamala Harris will, like Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, win the popular vote in the 2024 election by a fairly substantial margin. The elections of 2000 and 2016 demonstrated the winner of the popular vote does not automatically win the electoral college.
The choice of the Vice President running mate often has a large impact on electoral outcomes.
· John Kennedy would not have won the 1960 election had Lyndon Johnson not delivered Texas.
· Jimmy Carter might have lost in 1976 without help from Walter Mondale in both Wisconsin and Minnesota.
· Al Gore could have won in 2000 had he selected a running mate that flipped any state red to blue with in hindsight the logical choice being Senator Bob Graham of Florida.
The current electoral map favors Republicans. Biden won the general election by 4.5 percentage points, but margins were razor thin in around 6 key swing states. Walz energizes the base but does not help with moderate voters and does not help with the swing states.
· The decision to go with Walz instead of Shapiro will cause some concern among moderate and pro-Israel voters in PA, especially given the fairly intense lobbying against Shapiro by progressives like Michael Moore. Harris cannot win this election without taking PA.
· Hard to say how Walz impacts the contest for Wisconsin’s electoral votes. He is from the region and there is likely some cross-border good will towards this choice. However, Walz did not effective control George Floyd riots and similar unrest in Wisconsin likely cost the Democrats a Senate seat in 2022,
· I have previously argued that Harris will have a hard time winning Arizona without Kelly on the ticket.
· Nevada will be razor thin and could be instrumental but again Harris needs to probably win the entire blue wall – PA, Mi, and Wi -- for NV to matter.
· Biden won GA by 11,000 votes but state remains red as evidenced by Kemp’s victory and ballot access is always a concern in GA.
Concluding Remark:
The most damaging and divisive 2024 outcome is a situation similar to the 2000 election where the outcome comes down to a handful of votes in one key state. An electoral outcome similar to the 2000 election would prompt an attempt by Trump and the MAGA movement to take over the government by incorporating the methods they tried in 2020
The best way to preempt this disaster scenario and a repeat of the 2020 insurrection would have been the selection of a running mate that helped shore up some of the key swing states, especially PA, perhaps AZ. Electoral college math and this concern did not appear to factor into the running mate choice.