Fragmented Primaries, Unusual Math
How electoral rules, candidate fields, and local demographics could reshape a handful of House races in 2026
Seven Interesting House Races
Key Takeaways by Race
Races covered (in memo order):
Maine-02 (ME-02), Alaska At-Large (AK-AL), Nebraska-02 (NE-02), New Jersey-11 (NJ-11), New York-10 (NY-10), New York-12 (NY-12), California-47 (CA-47).
ME-02: Jared Golden’s exit removes a uniquely cross-partisan incumbent; depending on the GOP nominee, the race could either flip Republican or produce a rare ranked-choice coalition outcome with implications for House control.
AK-AL: Incumbent Nick Begich III is the clear front-runner under Alaska’s top-four system but ranked-choice rules mean a strong plurality does not fully eliminate upset risk if he fails to attract second-choice support.
NE-02: Despite an open seat, both parties appear likely to nominate broadly acceptable candidates; polarization risk is low and the race will turn on execution and the national environment rather than ideology.
NJ-11: A splintered Democratic special primary may yield a nominee with a weak mandate, while a credible, non-MAGA Republican makes the seat meaningfully more competitive than recent history suggests.
NY-10: A clean establishment-versus-progressive primary, centered around mid-east politics, creates a realistic scenario for an independent “insurance” candidacy if the anti-Israel candidate prevails.
NY-12: A crowded field creates low-plurality risk, but demographic constraints—especially a large, institutionally rooted Jewish electorate—have so far prevented ideological polarization.
CA-47: California’s top-two jungle primary elevates coalition math over ideology; while the incumbent is likely to advance, fragmentation could still produce a nonstandard general-election matchup.
ME-02: Golden’s Open Seat and Polarization Risk
The retirement of Jared Golden leaves Maine’s 2nd District unusually exposed. Golden repeatedly won a Trump-leaning seat by assembling a personal, cross-partisan coalition and relying on ranked-choice transfers. No declared candidate clearly reproduces that formula, making this one of the most volatile races of the cycle.
The Democratic field includes Joe Baldacci, a Bangor-based state senator with local roots and family name recognition; Matthew Dunlap, a former statewide officeholder with institutional credibility; Paige Loud, a lower-profile grassroots candidate; and Jordan Wood, whose résumé is largely national and issue-driven and appears poorly matched to the district’s rural, working-class electorate. On the Republican side, Paul LePage, the former governor, brings high name recognition and a polarizing style, while James Clark, an Army veteran, offers a more conventional and less incendiary conservative profile.
The general election hinges on the matchup. A LePage–Wood race would likely be highly polarized, creating room for a third-party centrist.
A Clark–Wood race would favor Republicans and could flip the seat.
A Clark versus a more mainstream Democrat would likely be close and could plausibly be one of the marginal races that determines control of the House.
AK-AL: Begich Leads, but RCV Leaves Room for Surprise
Rep. Nick Begich III is seeking reelection and is the clear front-runner in Alaska’s at-large House race, both because he is the incumbent and because of the enduring strength of the Begich family name in Alaska politics. He is the only clearly defined conservative in the field, making him well positioned to lead the August 18 top-four primary, potentially with a sizable plurality.
That advantage, however, does not guarantee victory under Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system. Begich will be the first choice of many voters but he will need fifty percent to win under rank choice voting rules and my not be the second choice for many voters.
NE-02: Competitive but Unlikely to Produce an Extreme Nominee
The retirement of Don Bacon removes a Republican who repeatedly won Nebraska’s most competitive district by cultivating crossover appeal and distancing himself from his party’s national brand. His absence creates uncertainty, but the current field does not show signs of ideological escalation on either side.
On the Democratic side, the primary is genuinely competitive, but the declared candidates largely come from mainstream backgrounds — elected officials, veterans, administrators, and party professionals — and are differentiating on experience, competence, and biography rather than on ideological position. There is little risk that Democrats will nominate a candidate out of step with the district’s moderate, suburban electorate.
On the Republican side, the picture is clearer. Barring an unexpected late entry, Joe Harding (Omaha City Council) appears positioned to be the nominee. While he lacks Bacon’s districtwide electoral history, his local executive experience and urban governing profile point toward a broadly acceptable, non-MAGA style candidacy rather than an ideologically polarizing one.
Both parties appear likely to nominate candidates capable of appealing beyond their base, making this a contest defined more by execution and national environment than by primary-driven polarization.
NJ-11: AIPAC’s Intervention, a Fragmented Democratic Outcome, and a Real General Election Test
The Democratic primary to replace outgoing Rep. Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District has become one of the earliest intra-party flashpoints of the 2026 cycle.
Eleven candidates competed in the February special primary, which remains unresolved, with progressive organizer Analilia Mejia narrowly leading former Rep. Tom Malinowski in late returns, roughly 28.9 percent to 27.8 percent, with thousands of ballots still outstanding. The eventual nominee will face Republican Joe Hathaway in the April 16 special general election in a district that has leaned Democratic in recent cycles.
A defining feature of the primary was heavy outside spending by American Israel Public Affairs Committee and allied entities aimed at defeating Malinowski. That intervention fragmented the field and may now result in the nomination of a candidate with rigid openly anti-Israel views.
Joe Hathaway, the mayor of Randolph, a former aid to Governor Christie, a Yale graduate, is the Republican nominee. He was not opposed in the primary. He is firmly in the Chris Christie wing of the party, is not MAGA, is thought to be a good communicator, is openly pro-Israel. This race could become quite competitive.
NY-10: Goldman vs. Lander, and the Outer Edges of a Safe Seat
Rep. Dan Goldman faces a Democratic primary challenge from Brad Lander in New York’s 10th Congressional District, a Lower Manhattan–Brooklyn seat that is overwhelmingly Democratic but internally diverse. The race has sorted along establishment versus progressive lines rather than around local service issues. Goldman’s coalition centers on institutional Democrats and older, pro-Israel voters; Lander’s support draws heavily from the city’s progressive and activist base.
Goldman enters with strong backing from party leadership, including Gov. Kathy Hochul and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries. His campaign emphasizes governance, rule of law, and a conventionally pro-Israel posture that aligns with the district’s long-standing mainstream Democratic electorate. Lander, while an experienced citywide official, is running as the vehicle for the party’s left flank, with endorsements from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. The substantive contrast is less about policy detail than about coalition composition and turnout in a low-salience primary.
The Republican baseline in NY-10 is minimal. In 2024, Republicans captured roughly 15 percent of the general-election vote, underscoring how limited the GOP’s role is in a typical cycle. That matters for possible 2026 scenarios. If Lander were to win a narrowly contested Democratic primary, the district would be one of the few in New York where an independent or third-party candidacy could plausibly test dissatisfaction among pro-Israel, centrist, and moderate Democrats who supported Goldman. Any such effort would draw primarily from Democratic and unaffiliated voters rather than from Republicans. Ballot access is feasible but time-constrained: independent nominating petitions must be filed in late May, ahead of the June primary, meaning any serious effort would need to be organized in advance as an insurance option rather than a post-primary reaction.
NY-12: Splintered Field, Not Yet an Ideological Fight
New York’s 12th District, opened by the retirement of Jerry Nadler, has a highly splintered Democratic primary in which a winner could plausibly emerge with well under 30 percent of the vote. Early speculation that Nadler stepped aside because his pro-Israel views were no longer viable has not been borne out by the race itself. Unlike NY-10, the contest has not sorted into a clear progressive-versus-establishment or pro- versus anti-Israel fight.
A key reason is demographic. NY-12 has a substantially larger and more institutionally rooted Jewish electorate than NY-10, which has acted as a moderating constraint on how far any serious contender can push on Israel or foreign policy. As a result, the race remains centered on credibility, experience, and coalition building rather than ideological polarization, even as the field remains crowded and fragmented.
CA-47: Jungle Primary Creates Unusual Math, Even With an Incumbent
California’s 47th District uses a top-two jungle primary, meaning all candidates — Democrats, Republicans, and independents — appear on the same ballot and only the two highest vote-getters advance. That structure can occasionally produce unexpected outcomes if one party’s vote fragments badly while another consolidates.
In 2026, incumbent Dave Min is the clear anchor and is very likely to finish in the top two. The remaining field is more fractured, with multiple Republican candidates and at least one independent competing for the second slot. While an independent advancing would require an unusually high level of vote splitting and remains unlikely based on current information, the jungle primary rules mean the race is shaped as much by coalition math as by party strength — leaving open the possibility of a nonstandard general election matchup even if Min advances comfortably.
For the framework and discussion on when and why centrist third-party candidacies become viable, especially in fragmented primaries and alternative electoral systems, see my earlier piece here: https://www.economicmemos.com/p/where-centrist-third-party-candidates.