Iowa’s Republican Sweep Faces Five Tests

Democrats lead for governor, battle for the Senate and target three House seats.

Iowa is a small state with five competitive races:

• Governor: Democrat Rob Sand vs. Republican Zach Lahn.

• U.S. Senate: Democrat Josh Turek vs. Republican Ashley Hinson.

• 1st District: Democrat Christina Bohannan vs. Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks.

• 2nd District: Democrat Lindsay James vs. Republican Joe Mitchell for an open seat.

• 3rd District: Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott vs. Republican incumbent Zach Nunn.

The remaining House contest, between Republican Chris McGowan and Democrat Dave Dawson in the open 4th District, strongly favors Republicans.

Republicans currently hold the governorship, both Senate seats and all four House seats.

Trump carried Iowa by roughly 13 percentage points in 2024, but a weak rural economy caused in part by tariffs and high diesel prices could hurt Republicans.

The Senate Race:

Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek are both credible candidates. The seat is open due to the retirement of Joni Ernst.

Ashley Hinson a former television journalist and state legislator, has represented northeastern Iowa in Congress since 2021. Hinson supports tariffs and restrictions on abortion. She recently broke with the President calling for an end of hostilities with Iran.

Turek, a state representative from Council Bluffs and Paralympic wheelchair-basketball gold medalist, has demonstrated an ability to win in a Republican-leaning district.

Turek’s emphasis on restoring Medicaid funding, protecting Affordable Care Act subsidies and reversing disruptive tariffs reflects a broadly conventional Democratic economic agenda.

The Senate polling is effectively tied. Turek leads by 0.7 percentage points across all nine polls, while Hinson leads by 0.25 points when Marist’s outlying eight-point Turek lead is excluded.

The gubernatorial race:

Democrat Rob Sand, a former prosecutor and Iowa’s twice-elected state auditor, appears to have substantial personal appeal beyond his party. He was the only Democrat to win statewide office in Iowa in 2022.

Republican Zach Lahn, a businessman, farmer and private-school co-founder, is seeking his first public office after defeating Trump-endorsed Congressman Randy Feenstra in the primary.

Polling indicates that Democrats are on course to win the governorship. Sand leads 50.1 percent to 42.9 percent in the RCP average and is ahead in every recent poll.

A victory by Sand the Democrat would not be a total surprise and would not by itself signal an ideological shift in the state. A state’s presidential voting pattern often does not carry over to gubernatorial contests, which are often determined by local issues rather than ideology.

The Competitive House Races

In southeastern IA-01 and Des Moines-centered IA-03, Republicans Miller-Meeks and Nunn are conservatives willing to sometimes break with Trump, recently opposing his Iran war policy. Northeastern IA-02’s Mitchell is more firmly Trump-aligned, defending tariffs and the war.

Democrats Bohannan, James and Trone Garriott are mainstream liberals appealing to the center. Bohannan favors optional Medicare buy-in rather than single-payer; Trone Garriott supports a public option preserving private insurance; James has criticized Biden’s border policies. Their campaigns emphasize affordability and health care rather than sweeping ideological change.

So, the Republican and Democrat candidates in Iowa differ substantially but candidates in both parties are at least attempting to appeal to voters in the center.

Democrats probably need to win at least one of the contested seats in Iowa to take control of the House. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in IA-01 is probably the most vulnerable because her margin of victory has been small in her three previous elections.

Author’s Note: Two of my recent articles, published on Medium, explore interesting election dynamics between Senate and House races in small potential swing states

Maine: The Maine Senate race is one of the most publicized contests in the country. The House race in ME-2 is a potential D to R flip because centrist Jared Golden, the only recent Democrat to win in this rural district, is retiring and former governor Paul LePage is currently the favorite.

Minnesota: The Minnesota Senate race has inexplicably gone under the radar even though the RCP average of polls in the Senate race is a dead heat and the margin in Minnesota in 2024 was much smaller than people realize. The Democrats have nominated a “progressive” in both the Senate contest and the open seat to replace Angie Craig in MN-2 creating a test of the viability of progressive candidates in swing districts.