Economic and Political Insights

Economic and Political Insights

Personal Finance & Investing

Preliminary Results: The Retirement Date Lottery: Why 2000 and 2007 Retirees Lived Different Financial Realities

How sequence-of-returns risk can make or break retirement security — even under the same withdrawal rule.

David Bernstein's avatar
David Bernstein
Sep 02, 2025
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Abstract:
What if two retirees followed the exact same withdrawal strategy, invested in the same portfolio, and started with the same nest egg — but one retired in 2000 and the other in 2007? By 2025, their outcomes are worlds apart. This post shows how the timing of retirement interacts with market downturns, reshaping financial security in ways that av…

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