An alphabetical watch list for subsequent analysis
I am going offline for a bit because of travel and other obligations, but before I do, I am publishing three related essays about control of the House. Two present the underlying race-by-race data. This first data essay examines Republican-held seats that Democrats could capture in 2026; the companion essay examines Democratic-held seats that Republicans could capture. A third essay will explain what the two lists currently imply about House control and how they can be used to track the election.
Bottom line. Among the 30 potential Democratic pickups, the September 16 consensus rates eight as Lean Democratic, fifteen as Tossups, two as Lean Republican and five as Likely Republican. Alaska is counted separately because Bill Hill is an independent rather than a Democrat; the consensus currently rates the Republican-held Alaska seat Likely Republican.
Rating note. The categories in this memo are from the 270 toWin consensus forecast as of September 16, 2026. That consensus aggregates multiple election forecasters, including the Cook Political Report; the ratings are not my proprietary probabilities. In this Republican-held-seat list, Lean Democratic means a Democratic pickup is favored, Tossup means neither party has a clear advantage, Lean Republican means a Republican hold is favored and Likely Republican identifies a longer-shot Democratic pickup opportunity. Ratings describe current competitiveness and may change as the campaign develops.
Purpose. This memo identifies 31 Republican-held House seats that could change hands in 2026: 30 potential Democratic pickups and one independent pickup opportunity in Alaska. The districts are presented in alphabetical order rather than ranked by probability.
Next step. The short descriptions explain why each race merits attention. A subsequent analysis will organize the seats into logical subsets based on competitiveness, geography, candidate fit and the broader political questions each contest can help answer.
Independent exception. AK-AL remains on the list because Republican Nick Begich faces independent Bill Hill after Democrat Matt Schultz suspended his campaign and endorsed Hill. A Hill victory would not be a Democratic pickup, but it could still affect control of the House.
House races in alphabetical order
AK-AL Nick Begich R and Bill Hill I Independent pickup opportunity
Likely Republican. Democrat Matt Schultz suspended his campaign and endorsed independent Bill Hill. Alaska remains analytically distinctive because its nonpartisan top-four system and ranked-choice general election make party labels a less complete guide than in the other districts.
Subscriber note: The full analysis below examines 31 Republican-held seats, including 30 potential Democratic pickups and an independent pickup opportunity in Alaska. It includes candidate matchups, race ratings, and the factors shaping each contest, with links to additional reporting. More memos drawing on this race-level data are coming soon. Use this coupon for 50% off an annual subscription—$30 for the year.
