An alphabetical watch list for subsequent analysis
I am going offline for a bit because of travel and other obligations, but before I do, I am publishing three related essays about control of the House. Two present the underlying race-by-race data. This first data essay examines Republican-held seats that Democrats could capture in 2026; the companion essay examines Democratic-held seats that Republicans could capture. A third essay will explain what the two lists currently imply about House control and how they can be used to track the election.
Bottom line. Among the 30 potential Democratic pickups, the September 16 consensus rates eight as Lean Democratic, fifteen as Tossups, two as Lean Republican and five as Likely Republican. Alaska is counted separately because Bill Hill is an independent rather than a Democrat; the consensus currently rates the Republican-held Alaska seat Likely Republican.
Rating note. The categories in this memo are from the 270toWin consensus forecast as of September 16, 2026. That consensus aggregates multiple election forecasters, including the Cook Political Report; the ratings are not my proprietary probabilities. In this Republican-held-seat list, Lean Democratic means a Democratic pickup is favored, Tossup means neither party has a clear advantage, Lean Republican means a Republican hold is favored and Likely Republican identifies a longer-shot Democratic pickup opportunity. Ratings describe current competitiveness and may change as the campaign develops.
Purpose. This memo identifies 31 Republican-held House seats that could change hands in 2026: 30 potential Democratic pickups and one independent pickup opportunity in Alaska. The districts are presented in alphabetical order rather than ranked by probability.
Next step. The short descriptions explain why each race merits attention. A subsequent analysis will organize the seats into logical subsets based on competitiveness, geography, candidate fit and the broader political questions each contest can help answer.
Independent exception. AK-AL remains on the list because Republican Nick Begich faces independent Bill Hill after Democrat Matt Schultz suspended his campaign and endorsed Hill. A Hill victory would not be a Democratic pickup, but it could still affect control of the House.
House races in alphabetical order
AK-AL Nick Begich R and Bill Hill I Independent pickup opportunity
Likely Republican. Democrat Matt Schultz suspended his campaign and endorsed independent Bill Hill. Alaska remains analytically distinctive because its nonpartisan top-four system and ranked-choice general election make party labels a less complete guide than in the other districts.
AR-02 Chris Jones D and French Hill R
Likely Republican. Jones, a nuclear engineer and the 2022 Democratic nominee for governor, gives Democrats a recognizable challenger against a six-term incumbent. Little Rock provides a Democratic base, but the surrounding counties remain strongly Republican, making the contest a test of whether candidate quality and a favorable national environment can put a structurally Republican district into play.
AZ-01 Amish Shah D and Jay Feely R
Lean Democratic. This open suburban Phoenix seat tests whether affordability and health care can displace immigration and border security as the dominant issues. Shah is a physician and former legislator; Feely is a former NFL player and broadcaster entering elective politics.
AZ-06 JoAnna Mendoza D and Juan Ciscomani R
Lean Democratic. The Tucson-area contest is a direct test of how border concerns interact with health care, veterans’ issues and household costs. Mendoza’s Marine background gives Democrats a service-oriented contrast with an incumbent who has made border policy central to his record.
CA-22 Randy Villegas D and David Valadao R
Lean Democratic. The redrawn Central Valley district is more Democratic than its predecessor, while Villegas ran to the left of his principal Democratic primary opponent. The race therefore tests how the new lines interact with the candidates’ differing policy positions.
CA-48 Marni von Wilpert D and Jim Desmond R
Lean Democratic. With no incumbent after redistricting, this is a contest between two experienced San Diego-area officeholders. Labor policy and affordability provide a clear contrast between von Wilpert, a former NLRB attorney, and Desmond, a county supervisor.
CO-04 Eileen Laubacher D and Lauren Boebert R
Likely Republican. Laubacher is a retired Navy rear admiral and former Republican, creating a contrast in biography and political background with Boebert. The district remains structurally Republican, so the race can show how much crossover appeal matters in strongly partisan territory.
CO-05 Jessica Killin D and Jeff Crank R
Lean Republican. Colorado Springs remains Republican-leaning, but Killin is an Army veteran and former Defense Department official running against a first-term incumbent. Including it would add a military-heavy district where long-run suburban change can be distinguished from short-term national movement.
CO-08 Manny Rutinel D and Gabe Evans R
Lean Democratic. This mixed suburban, Latino and agricultural district asks whether Rutinel’s progressive profile fits communities beyond the Denver suburbs. Evans can emphasize law enforcement and military experience, while Rutinel is likely to make affordability and environmental policy central.
IA-01 Christina Bohannan D and Mariannette Miller-Meeks R
Tossup. Bohannan and Miller-Meeks meet again in a district containing both university communities and extensive rural territory. The central analytical question is whether strain in the farm and rural economy changes voting behavior in a state that has moved toward Republicans.
IA-02 Lindsay James D and Joe Mitchell R
Tossup. This open-seat race extends the same Iowa question into a more Republican and heavily rural district. It is useful for separating a broad rural economic reaction from candidate-specific effects in the state’s closer contests.
IA-03 Sarah Trone Garriott D and Zach Nunn R
Tossup. The district links Des Moines suburbs with smaller towns and rural counties, making it a useful test of whether weak agricultural conditions can offset Iowa’s recent Republican trend. Trone Garriott’s state-legislative experience gives the contest a conventional officeholder-versus-officeholder structure.
MI-04 Sean McCann D and Bill Huizenga R
Tossup. McCann’s Kalamazoo base and long state-legislative record give Democrats an experienced challenger in a district that also includes Republican-leaning communities around Holland. The race measures whether concerns about health costs and manufacturing can broaden Democratic support beyond the district’s urban core.
MI-07 William Lawrence D and Tom Barrett R
Tossup. Lawrence’s victory created a sharp ideological contrast in a district Democrats previously won with a more centrist profile. His Sunrise Movement background and positions on data centers, health care and foreign policy make candidate fit a central question.
MI-10 Christina Hines D and Michael Bouchard R
Tossup. An open seat removes the normal incumbent advantage and puts candidate biography at the center of a suburban Detroit contest. Hines is a former prosecutor, while Bouchard brings decades of law-enforcement experience as Oakland County sheriff.
MT-01 Sam Forstag D and Aaron Flint R
Lean Republican. The retirement of Ryan Zinke created an open seat, and Forstag defeated former gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse in the Democratic primary. His progressive economic message and smokejumper background make the contest useful for examining how biography and ideology interact in rural western Montana.
NC-11 Jamie Ager D and Jennifer Balkcom R
Tossup. The workbook’s Republican candidate is outdated: Edwards ended his campaign and party officials selected Balkcom. That unusual replacement, combined with Hurricane Helene recovery and the district’s Asheville-versus-rural divide, makes the race an organizational as well as ideological test.
NE-02 Denise Powell D and Brinker Harding R
Lean Democratic. This Omaha-area open seat voted for the Democratic presidential ticket in 2024 while electing a Republican to Congress. Powell’s fundraising and activist network meet Harding’s longer local-government résumé, making their different routes into the race especially visible.
NJ-07 Rebecca Bennett D and Tom Kean Jr R
Lean Democratic. Bennett’s Navy and business background gives Democrats a challenger tailored to a suburban swing district. Kean’s lengthy medical absence and missed votes created an accountability issue distinct from the national policy debate.
NV-02 Teresa Benitez-Thompson D and David Flippo R
Likely Republican. Mark Amodei’s retirement created the district’s first open seat in 15 years. Benitez-Thompson is a former Nevada Assembly majority leader, while Flippo is a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel and political newcomer backed by Trump; the Republican registration advantage remains substantial, but the open seat and Washoe County’s role make it a useful test of the reach of a Democratic wave.
NY-17 Cait Conley D and Mike Lawler R
Tossup. Conley is an Army veteran and former national-security official running in a district that supported the Democratic presidential ticket in 2024. Lawler has repeatedly won difficult races and is competing for crossover labor and Jewish support, so the contest tests the durability of his personal coalition.
OH-10 Kristina Knickerbocker D and Mike Turner R
Likely Republican. Turner has consistently outperformed the Republican presidential ticket and retains a strong identity in the Dayton area, including through his advocacy for Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The district nevertheless moved toward Democrats under the new lines, so the race tests whether a favorable national environment can overcome a durable incumbent advantage.
PA-01 Bob Harvie D and Brian Fitzpatrick R
Tossup. Harvie is a countywide officeholder who has won twice in Bucks County. Fitzpatrick’s bipartisan brand and substantial past overperformance make this a test of a local officeholder’s record against a well-established incumbent identity.
PA-07 Bob Brooks D and Ryan Mackenzie R
Tossup. Brooks, a firefighter and union leader, gives Democrats a working-class messenger in the Lehigh Valley. The race provides a direct test of whether an economic and labor-centered campaign can regain voters who have moved toward Republicans.
PA-08 Paige Cognetti D and Rob Bresnahan R
Tossup. Cognetti is a Scranton mayor with a record of winning local office, while Bresnahan has faced sustained criticism over stock trades after advocating a congressional trading ban. The district therefore combines a candidate with an established local record and a specific ethics and trust issue involving the incumbent.
PA-10 Janelle Stelson D and Scott Perry R
Tossup. This rematch pairs a former television journalist with a nationally prominent conservative incumbent. Because their ideological and stylistic contrast is unusually large, the result may say as much about the two candidates as about the national environment.
TX-15 Bobby Pulido D and Monica De La Cruz R
Tossup. Pulido’s fame as a Tejano musician gives Democrats a culturally recognizable candidate in a heavily Hispanic district that has shifted Republican. Immigration, border enforcement and the oil and gas economy will show whether celebrity can translate into a durable South Texas coalition.
TX-23 Katy Padilla Stout D and Brandon Herrera R
Likely Republican. This open border district pits a former Biden administration official against a gun-rights entrepreneur and online personality. The contrast makes the race useful for judging whether border politics remain dominant or whether candidate experience and economic issues can reshape the contest.
VA-01 Shannon Taylor D and Rob Wittman R
Tossup. Taylor, the Henrico County commonwealth’s attorney, offers Democrats a law-enforcement profile against a long-serving incumbent. The district combines Richmond suburbs with rural and military communities, allowing candidate biography and federal policy to be tested across very different electorates.
VA-02 Elaine Luria D and Jen Kiggans R
Lean Democratic. The rematch features two Navy veterans with established records in a defense-oriented Hampton Roads district. Luria’s prior service in Congress and Kiggans’s incumbency make this one of the clearest comparisons of candidate records rather than résumé potential.
WI-03 Rebecca Cooke D and Derrick Van Orden R
Tossup. Cooke’s rural background and previous campaign make an economic message central to the western Wisconsin rematch. The contest sharply frames the recurring rural question: how voters weigh farm and household economics alongside national cultural conflict.
Sources
· Alaska Beacon on Schultz leaving the race
· Associated Press on Elaine Luria and VA-02
· Associated Press on the NE-02 primary
· Reuters on Rebecca Bennett and NJ-07
· Reuters on Cait Conley and NY-17
· Politico on Paige Cognetti and Bresnahan stock trades
· The Guardian on Bob Brooks and PA-07
· Wisconsin Public Radio on the WI-03 rematch
· WEAU issue comparison for WI-03
· Iowa Public Radio on Sarah Trone Garriott
· Iowa Capital Dispatch on IA-02
· Ballotpedia on AZ-06 candidates
· The Guardian on Marni von Wilpert and CA-48
· Michigan Advance guide to MI-04
· The Assembly on the revised NC-11 matchup
· Politico on Bobby Pulido and TX-15
· Colorado Public Radio on CO-05
· Axios on Eileen Laubacher and CO-04
· Montana Free Press election guide for Sam Forstag
· CBS News on the MT-01 nominees
· Arkansas Advocate on Chris Jones and AR-02
· Associated Press on the NV-02 nominees and open seat
· Cook Political Report on Mike Turner’s electoral record in OH-10
Author’s note
Economic and Political Insights is a multi-topic blog covering economic policy, finance and investments, and politics. For the statistical forecast underlying this project, read Who Will Control the House in 2026?. Readers may also use this coupon for 50 percent off an annual subscription, reducing the annual price to $30.