Snapshot of Pennsylvania 2024 Political Races – 8/25/2024.
Highlights:
· RCP polling averages have Trump and Harris in a dead heat.
· RCP polling averages have incumbent Democrat Senator Bob Casey substantially over challenger Republican Dave McCormick.
· 6 of 17 House Seats will be closely contested and several seats could be flipped.
· Candidate position on the Israel-Gaza war could be an important factor in 3 of the highly contested seats. The Jewish population in Pennsylvania is 3 times larger than the Muslim population.
· My prediction for PA house races is that the Republicans could easily flip two seats currently held by a Democrat and that a Democrat could easily flip one seat held by a Republican.
More details on the PA presidential, Senate, and 6 contested House contests below.
State of Presidential contest in Pennsylvania:
· The RCP average of the last 10 Trump/Harris polls in PA have Trump up by 0.2 points.
· Often polls understate support for Trump, but the RCP average has been historically accurate in previous contests involving Trump.
· RCP average closely tracked actual outcome for PA in 2020. Both final RCP average and actual outcome were Biden +1.2.
The Senate Contest:
· The RCP average on 8-25 for the Casey/McCormick senate race has Casey at +7.6 points.
· All polls included in the recent RCP average had Casey leading McCormick.
· One poll Times/Sienna had Casey at +14. Time/Sienna polls tend to overstate Democrat candidate supports while Rasmussen polls sometime overstate Republican support.
Crucial House Contests:
· 6 of 17 House Races in PA will be closely contested in 2-24
· 4 of the 6 closely contested races are currently held by Democrats
District 1 northern suburbs of Philadelphia: Brian Fitzpatrick and Ashley Ehasz are in a rematch of their 2022 race. Ehasz is again attempting to make abortion the decisive issue. Fitzpatrick, a member of the problem-solvers caucus will be tough to beat but this race like the 2022 race will be close.
District 7 Lehigh Valley: Susan Wild is running for reelection in a District that she won with a winning percentage of 51.0 percent of the vote is opposed by Ryan Mackenzie. Both Ryan Mackenzie and his mom served in the state legislature and the family ties to the area could be decisive. Susan Wild considers herself pro-Israel but is walking the tight rope on this issue.
District 8 Poconos in Northeast Penn: Matt Cartwright the moderate Democrat in a Republican leaning district has a proven ability to win extremely close elections.
District 10 York County South Central Part of the State: The incumbent ultra conservative and MAGA Republican Scott Perry is opposed by Janelle Stelson, a former local news anchor. Perry’s 2022 winning percent was 53.8 percent, but his support of January 6 rioters and opposition to assistance to both Ukraine and Israel makes him highly controversial. Stelson, a great communicator because of her previous profession has resolutely backed Israel. She is not walking the tightrope on the Israel/Gaza war that many Democrats walk. This is one of the most interesting House races in the country.
District 12 the city of Pittsburgh: Summer Lee won this district with over 56 percent of the vote in 2022. She voted no on a pro-Israel resolution two weeks after October 7. Her pro-Israel opponent for the Democrat nomination received 40 precent of the vote and many Pittsburgh Democrats may split their ticket and vote for James Hayes who is running a strong campaign. Go here for some new on this campaign.
District 17 western and northern suburbs of Pittsburgh: A bell weather district in PA, which Trump took by 3 points in 2016 and Biden took by 3 points in 2020. House races in this district are generally very close. Incumbent Democrat Chris Deluzio is a clear favorite.
Final thought on House Races:
· 3 of the 6 close house races are virtual tossups.
· I would not be surprised to see Republicans flipping seats in PA 7 and PA 12 and the Democrat flipping PA 10.