The contest for control of Congress
Initial discussion of some competitive races
Introduction:
The contest for the control of Congress is infinitely more exciting and complex than both the presidential race and the contest for the control of the Senate. Most congressional districts are solid red or solid blue. However, there are around 80 potentially contestable races.
The electoral map for control of the House in 2024 like the one for the Senate favors the Republicans because more vulnerable Democrat incumbents are up for reelection than vulnerable Republican incumbents. But the tile of the map for House races is less pronounced than the tilt of the Senate map.
· The Democrats are defending 48 seats where the 2022 winning percentage was less than 55 compared to 31 seats for the Republicans.
· The Democrats are defending 19 seats where the 2022 winning percentage was less than 52 compared to 16 seats for Republicans.
A large blue or red wave is unlikely in 2024 as the presidential election is extremely close. Factors that determine the election include:
· Ticket splitting: Many Republicans who can’t vote for Trump will vote Republican down ballot.
· Candidate quality: With some notable exceptions, parties are nominating relatively moderate candidates in swing districts.
· Abortion: Abortion is a tailwind for some Democrats, especially in states with abortion referendums on the ballot.
· Mideast Politics: Some Democrats equivocate about Israel to placate the “progressive” part of the party. This strategy can backfire is some districts.
This memo looks at 40 or so most competitive races.
Potential Flipped Seats:
Generally, incumbents have a huge advantage when seeking reelection to Congress. However, many seats are open and my analysis suggests, a lot of seats will flip either Democrat to Republican or Republican to Democrat this year.
Seats most likely to flip from Democrat to Republican: AK 1, CA 47. CO8, ME 2, MI 7, NM 2, NY 18, NY 22, OR 6, PA7, PA12, and WA 3.
Seats most likely to flip Republican to Democrat: AZ 6, CA 13, CA 22, FL 13, IA 3, MI 10, MT 1, NY 4, NY 17, NY 22, OR 5, PA 10, and WI 3.
Incumbents generally have the advantage and some of the vulnerable candidates will eke out a victory, but these races will be close. To get a better feel of the political landscape and the factors impacting the contest for control of the House read my notes on the most notable races.
Notes on Contestable House Races:
Alaska:
AK 1: Mary Peltola, the incumbent Democrat is facing Nick Begich III. Both candidates are capable and have substantial name recognition. The state leans Republican but Peltoia has defied her party on key votes on immigration and auto emissions.
The race is a toss-up. I believe it will flip red.
Arizona.
Three seats are potentially in play, Districts 1, 2, and 6. The statewide amendment on abortion should assist Democrats but presidential polls have Trump ahead in this swing state and Republicans gained seats in AZ in 2022.
AZ 1: David Schweikert, the incumbent Republican faces Amish Shah the Democrat nominee from a highly contested primary. Scheikert’s won the seat with only 50.4 percent of the vote in 2022. Biden won the seat in 2020. The contest for the Democrat nomination was highly competitive and Shah may be too liberal for this district.
Seat is a toss-up.
AZ 2: Eli Crane the incumbent republican who won with 53.9 percent of the vote in 2022 is facing Jonathan Nez a Democrat. Crane has much more money than Nez. The seat was held by a Democrat from 2019 to 2023 but is now solid republican. Not sure why this seat is not more competitive.
AZ 6: Juan Ciscomani, the incumbent Republican against Kirsten Engel the Democrat are in a rematch of their extremely close 2022 contest in a district that Joe Biden won in 2020. (The 2022 margin was 50.73 to 49.24). Both candidates are strong and well-funded. Kirsten Engel may benefit from the abortion amendment on the ballot.
The race is a toss-up. Kirsten Engel is the Democrat’s best chance for a pick-up in AZ.
California: The race for control of the House of Representatives could be determined by races in two blue states, CA and NY. There are 9 House districts in California where the winning percentage was less than 55.0 in 2022.
Five races deserve close scrutiny – CA 13, CA 22, CA 41, CA 45, and CA 47.
CA 13: John Duarte, the incumbent Republican and Adam Gray are in a rematch in what was the second closest House race in 2022. Biden took this district by 10 points in 2020.
CA 22: Valadao (Republican Incumbent vs Salas Democrat) a rematch of 2022 when Hurtado won with 51.6 percent of vote.
Salas is favored in the rematch.
District is considered a toss-up.
This type of District must go to the Democrats if they are to take back the House.
CA 41:
Calvert Incumbent Republican and Rollins Democrat Challenger in a rematch of 2022 when Calvert won with 52.3 percent.
Calvert is favored.
CA 45:
Michelle Steel (Incumbent Republican) vs Derek Tran Democrat. Steel won with 52.4 percent of the vote in 2022.
CA 47: David Min and Scott Baugh are competing for the open seat vacated by Katie Porter who chose to run for the Senate. Porter the Democrat won the seat with 51.7 percent of the vote.
AIPAC strongly opposed David Min in the primary and he is viewed by some as being anti-Israel.
This seat could flip red.
Colorado
Two seats CO 3 and CO 8 are in play. Both are toss ups.
CO 3: Adam Firsch (Dem) versus Jeff Hurd (Rep) in a seat vacated by lauren Boebert who move to CO 4 a safer republican District. Firsch nearly beat Boebert in 2022 but Hurd may be a stronger candidate for the district than Boebert.
Toss up.
CO 8: Yadira Caraveo (incumbent Democrat) versus Gabe Evan (Republican). Caraveo was elected with 48.4 percent of the vote in 2022.
Toss-up.
Democrats should have been more competitive in CO 4 Lauren Boebert’s new district. However, the Democrat nominee is not a good match for a fundamentally conservative district.
Connecticut:
An extremely blue state has only one district CO 5 in a rematch of a 2022 race where the margin was less than 1 percentage point in 2022. While this district is very competitive, one would expect that higher turnout in a presidential year should favor the incumbent Democrat.
Florida:
The Republicans had a very good years in Florida in 2022, with the incumbent Republican governor and Senator winning reelection and the Republican party gaining four house seats. The Democrats have not taken steps to improve candidate quality in Florida. The one tail wind for the Democrats in Florida is the statewide abortion referendum. However, I believe that Democrats will likely only flip one seat in Florida in 2024.
FL 13: Anna Paulina Luna (Incumbent Republican versus Whitney Fox (Democrat). Luna is an extreme conservative who is vehemently against abortion while Fox is pro-choice and very mainstream on other issues.
Theoretically FL 27 should be in play, but the Democrat candidate is not a great match for an evenly divided district and the Republican incumbent has proven to be highly effective.
My view is the Democrats have underinvested in House races in Florida. Also, many Democrat nominees are not a good match for fundamentally conservative Hispanic immigrants.
Illinois. An extremely blue state. The winning percentage for three Democrat incumbents was less than 55 percent in 2022. However, these seats are likely safe in a higher turnout presidential year.
Iowa: Recently a swing state (Obama won it twice) is now reliably red. Republicans now win all statewide offices and control all four Congressional seats. In 2018, the Democrats controlled all four congressional seats. Basically, the Democrats pulled out of Iowa by taking away the privilege of the first-in-the-nation presidential caucus. Read more about the political situation in Iowa here.
Despite the Democrats no longer actively campaigning in Iowa and large margins favoring Republicans in statewide races most of the House contests remain tight. I am watching two races IA 1, and IA 3.
IA 1: Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Christina Bohannan are in a rematch of the 2022 race. Both candidates are highly funded.
Miller-Meeks is favored to retain the seat.
IA 3: Zach Nunn Incumbent Republican versus Lanan Baccam a Democrat challenger, Nunn flipped the seat in 2022 with 50.3 percent of the vote.
Race is a toss-up.
In both of these Iowa races, Iowa’s extremely tough and unpopular abortion law is an issue. Go here for a discussion of the impact of the abortion issue on Iowa House races.
Maine:
ME 2: Is always tight and always important because the winner of the presidential contest in ME 2 gets an electoral vote. Goldin the incumbent Democrat should win this race and retain the seat.
Michigan:
Michigan is a swing state with an open Senate seat. The state has a significant Arab population and there has been significant discussion of that population using their vote to protest Biden Administration support of Israel. The governor of Michigan Gretchen Whitmer is an incredibly impressive leader who may be able to bolster other Democrat candidates.
The 2022 victor in 5 of 13 congressional races had a winning percentage less than 55 percent in 2022. I am focusing on two races – MI 7 and MI 10.
MI 7: This is an open seat vacated by Elissa Slotkin who is currently running for the Senate. The district is highly competitive and the three-way race between Curtis Hertel (Democrat) Tom Barrett (Republican) and L. Rachel Dailey (Libertarian) should be close.
The Democrat should win but this race will be close.
MI 10: The incumbent republican John James won one of the closest races in 2022 is up for reelection against Democrat Carl Malinga and two third-party candidates.
This race is a toss-up. It could be decided based on which major candidate loses fewer votes to the third party alternative.
Montana:
Montana is an extremely red state with an incumbent Democrat on the ballot. Abortion is on the ballot in Montana in 2024 creating a tail wind for the Democrat in the key Senate race and in MT 1.
MT 1: A rematch between Incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke and Monica Tranel, the Democrat. Zinke won with 49.7 percent of the vote in 2022. Could the abortion referendum create a win for Tranel this time.
New Mexico:
NM 2: Gabrielle Vasquez (incumbent Democrat) versus Yvette Herrell in a rematch. Vasuez won by 0.7 percent in 2022. Herrell was the incumbent at the time.
The race is a true toss-up. Some voters may split their ticket and vote for Harris and Herrell.
New York:
Republicans did extremely well in blue New York in 2022. Reversing these gains is key to the Democrats taking back the House in 2024. There were 6 House races in New York where the winning percentage was less than 55 percent in 2022.
The Democrats reversed one of these gains with the special election after the resignation of George Santos in NY 3.
Must look at NY 4, NY 17, NY 18, NY 19 and NY 22.
NY 4: Rematch of 2022 race between Anthony D. Esposito (Republican incumbent) and Laura Gellen. Esposito won with 51.8 percent of the vote but the recent scandal and larger turnout in a presidential year favor Gellen.
NY 17: Mike Lawler (republican incumbent) versus Mondaire Jones, a former congressman. Lawler won with 50.3 percent of the vote in 2022. There is talk that Lawler will run for governor if he wins reelection.
NY 18: Pat Ryan (Democrat Incumbent) versus Alison Esposito (Republican). Ryan won with 50.7 percent of the vote in 2022.
NY 19: Marc Molinaro (incumbent republican) in a rematch of close 2022 race with Josh Molinaro.
NY 22: Brandon William (Incumbent Republican) versus John Mannion (Democrat). Williams won with 50.5 percent of the vote in 2022 but the district leans to the Democrats and should flip back in a presidential election year.
North Carolina:
The winner of four seats decided in 2022 had a winning percentage less than 55 percent. Three of the seats were held by Democrats and one held by a Republican. I expect incumbent House candidates will win reelection in North Carolina where more ticket splitting will occur in the presidential and gubernatorial race. Kathy Manning (Democrat) retired from NC 6 due to redistricting; hence, I expect one Republican gain in North Carolina.
Oregon:
Democrat incumbents must defend two seats they narrowly won in 2022, OR 5 and OR 6.
OR 5: Lori Chavez De Remer (Incumbent Republican) versus Janelle Bynum Democrat. De Remer flipped this district in 2022, but Bynum, a centrist is a huge improvement over the 2022 Democrat nominee. Democrats will retake this district.
OR 6: Andreas Salinas (incumbent Democrat) versus Mike Erickson in a rematch of a very tight 2022 race. A pure toss-up.
Pennsylvania:
In addition to being the key swing state in the presidential election and having a crucial Senate race, Pennsylvania has six interesting house races. In 5 of the races, (PA 1, PA 7, PA 8, PA 10, PA 17) the winning percent was less than 55 percent in 2022. In the sixth race, the Democrat is vulnerable because of her position on Gaza.
I am going to be looking very closely at early returns in House races PA on election night both because these races may provide information on both the presidential outcome and the race for control of the House.
PA 1: Brian Fitzpatrick (incumbent republican) versus Ashley Ehasz in a rematch. Fitzpatrick has been surviving in a suburban district because he does reach across the aisle in Congress and does do good constituent service. Ehaasz is emphasizing abortion. Advantage Fitzpatrick again.
PA 7: Susan Wild (incumbent Democrat) versus Ryan Mackensie. Wild is in trouble because her opponent is a solid candidate, is part of a political family with strong ties to the district and Wild is attempting to have it both ways on Israel-Gaza. Equivocation seldom works. Go here for a discussion of their recent debate.
This seat may flip.
PA 8: Matt Cartwright (incumbent democrat versus Rob Bresnahan Jr republican. Cartwright, a centrist, has figured out how to win close races in a republican leaning district.
PA 10: Scott Perry (incumbent Republican) versus Janelle Stelson, Democrat. The district is Republican leaning but Scott Perry was implicated in January 6 events and opposed aid to both Ukraine and Israel. Stelson, a centrist and former newscaster is an excellent candidate. The professional say that Perry will pull this race out.
I predict and hope that Stelson will flip the seat to the Democrats.
PA 12: Summer Lee (incumbent Democrat) versus James Hayes republican. Lees has extensively criticized Israel and supports an arm embargo. She was renominated but her opponent in the Democrat party got 40 percent. Many voters in this district, especially Jewish Democrats will split their votes. I believe Hayes will beat Lee.
PA 17: Chris Deluzio (incumbent Democrat) versus Rob Mercuri republican. An even district, which went for Biden. Race could be a bell weather for the state outcome.
Read more about the political situation in PA here and go to this fascinating interview.
Virginia: Three districts were decided by less than 55 percent of the vote in 2022 – VA 2, VA 7, and VA 10. In 2022, VA 2 was flipped to a republican district while VA 7 and VA 10 were Democrat holds. My prediction is no flips in these three districts in 2024, but I am watching VA 2 very closely and will get back to you with some polling data when it becomes available.
VA 2: Jen Kiggans (republican incumbent) versus Missy Cotter Smasal Democrat. The district has a lot of military and ex-military voters. Both candidates are ex-military. Kiggans flipped the district red in 2022. The abortion issue favors Smasal but Kiggins is the incumbent with greater name recognition.
VA 7: Eugene Vidman Democrat versus Derrick Anderson republican, competing for the seat vacated by Democrt Abigail Spanberger who will run for governor. Vidman is famous for his role in the first Trump impeachment. This seat is not likely to flip red in a presidential election year.
VA 10: Suhas Subramanyam Democrat versus Mike Clancy Republican. Hard to see a Republican winning this suburban DC district in a presidential year.
Washington:
Focus is on WA 3.
WA 3: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez the Democrat incumbent is in a rematch with Joe Kent, a Republican. This was an extremely close race in 2022 and will be again in 2024.
Wisconsin:
The race to watch in Wisconsin is WI 3.
WI 3: Race features republican incumbent Derrick van Orden who flipped the seat in 2022 against Rebecca Cooke the Democrat, young small business owner who won a competitive primary. The seat is rated leans Republican, but in my view, Cooke can win this race.
Concluding thought: This memo is a work in progress. I will add more information about these and other races between today and election day. I will also create a postmortem after the results are in.