The contest for control of the House in 2024
The electoral map and the likelihood of ticket splitting
Introduction:
We know that the presidential election will be determined by outcomes in 6 swing states and maybe North Carolina.
We know 8 Senate seats held by Democrats are in play and that the Democrats must sweep to maintain control of the Senate.
We don’t know much about the contest for control of the House.
All 435 House seats are up.
We don’t know how many contests are close and whether these races favor Republicans or Democrats.
We don’t know where voters are likely to split the ticket by voting for one party at the Presidential or Senate level and the other party at the House level.
This memo provides information on the tilt of the electoral map in House races and the factors that could lead some voters to split the ticket.
Analysis:
The electoral map for House races:
The electoral map for control of the House in 2024 favors the Republicans because more Democrat incumbents are up for reelection in tough races than Republicans.
· The Democrats are defending 48 seats where the 2022 winning percentage was less than 55 compared to 31 seats for the Republicans.
· The Democrats are defending 19 seats where the 2022 winning percentage was less than 52 compared to 16 seats for Republicans.
The Republicans are better positioned to pull of some flips because more potentially flippable seats are currently held by Democrats.
A big Republican year could lead to larger changes.
A big Democrat year could negate the fact the electoral map favors Republicans and lead to large changes favoring the Democrats.
The other factor favoring Democrats in a close election is the possibility of ticket splitting.
Ticket Splitting: Ticket splitting occurs when a voter either selects the Republican for President and a Democrat for the Senate and/or House or vice versa.
Both Biden in 2020 and Harris in 2024 argued that Trump was uniquely unacceptable, twice impeached and a threat to Democracy. There are in fact Republicans for Harris and Never Trumper because they share this perception of Trump.
Republicans who are for Harris or who are NEVER TRUMP will tend to vote for the down-ballot Republican if they are in fact Republican. (Some exceptions like Kari Lake could happen if the candidate is too MAGA.)
Ticket splitting can occur because of specific issues.
Jewish and pro-Israel voters may split their ticket in 2024 when the Democrat candidate is too critical of Israel and/or is actually pro terrorist. The impact of Israel on ticket splitting may be determinative in several House Contests including -- PA 1, PA 12, CA 47, and NY 17.
Probably the best example of potential ticket splitting on this list is PA 12, where the incumbent Congresswoman. Summer Lee, won renomination, but her pro-Israel opponent received 40 percent of the vote. I expect ticket splitting by pro-Israel Democrats will help the Republicans flip this district in November.
Democrats attempt to peel off Republican votes because of abortion but abortion may not lead to ticket splitting because Trump’s court picks overturned Roe and a pro-choice voter could oppose both Trump and an anti-choice Republican House candidate.
I am working on a memo forecasting the likely amount of 2024 ticket splitting.
Concluding Remarks: The electoral map for control of the House in 2024 favors Republicans. The electoral map may not be determinative if there was a big blue wave, or if there is substantial ticket splitting.