The Democratic Party’s Leftward Drift and the 2026 Elections
President Trump once famously said that he could shoot someone in the middle of fifth avenue and still not lose voters. The question hanging over the 2026 election is whether Trump and the Republicans could continue to institute extreme policies and kill the economy though tariffs and still retain control of the Senate, the House of Representatives or both parts of Congress.
Polls indicate that Trump’s approval rating is unusually low and polls providing feedback on a generic Congressional ballot indicate voters favor Democrat control of Congress. It is possible that a complete collapse of the economy or a large reaction to some of the Trump administration’s more extreme policies could lead to substantial Democratic gains in 2026.
However, the Democrats face headwinds in 2026.
A review of the political landscape reveals the Democratic party is simply not competitive in many swing states and Congressional districts, which determine control of the Senate and the House of Representatives.
The policy proposals and values of the Democratic party, mostly shaped by the preferences of the progressive wing of the party, are not economically viable and are often inconsistent with the values of many centrist Americans. The Democrats appear to be doubling down on their progressive agenda as evidenced by David Hogg’s decision to earmark established Democrats who aren’t reaching out enough to progressives or young voters.
The rise of Trump and MAGA and the general success of the Republican party is not the result of an acceptance of extreme right-wing views. The success of MAGA and Republicans is largely a result of voters in the political center rejecting the alternative “progressive” vision offered by the Democrats.
The Political Landscape:
Most parts of the country are increasingly turning towards the Republican party.
One measure of the political tilt of a state is whether one party controls both houses of state government and the governorship.
· There are currently 23 states where Republicans control all three branches and 13 states where Democrats control all three branches.
· 36.5 percent of the country lives in a state with total Democrat control compared to 41.5 percent of the country living in a state with total Republican control.
· The 12 states with ostensibly divided government all went to Donald Trump in 2024.
This political landscape shapes both the contest for control of the Senate and control of the House in 2026.
The Senate is easier to analyze than the House. There appear to be five contestable Senate seats in 2026 – Maine, North Carolina, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Georgia.
· Maine and North Carolina are the two state most likely to flip to the Democrats but the Republican incumbent will be favored in both seats.
· Michigan and New Hampshire are open seats because of the retirement of a Democrat incumbent. Results could depend on candidate quality. Republicans have a good shot in Michigan if, as expected, Rogers is the nominee.
· Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is vulnerable in Georgia where the state’s first Jewish Senator is losing Jewish and pro-Israel support especially if the popular governor Kemp enters the race.
The outcome of the contest for control of the House of Representatives is more difficult to predict. The current makeup of the House of Representatives has been remarkably closely divided and stable since 2020.
· After 2020, Democrats had 222 seats.
· After 2022, Democrats had 213 seats.
· There are currently 213 Democrats in the House and 2 open seats.
· Best case scenario predicated on a major collapse of the economy involves Democrats taking 234 House seats, their number after the 2018 midterms during Trump’s first term.
Go here for some interesting data on changes in composition of the House of Representatives in midterm elections.
Democrat candidates are not competitive in many parts of the country, even in states where they used to do fairly well.
In Florida, the 2000 swing state Democrats have 8 of 28 Congressional seats. It is likely the demise of the Democrat party in Florida was caused by progressive foreign policy positions on Cuba and Israel, which antagonize both Cuban and Jewish Americans.
The composition of the House delegation in Texas remained constant at 25-13 Republican to Democrat after 2024. (Maybe Democrats should consider investing in House races in 2026 Texas rather than statewide races. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994.)
The House delegation in Pennsylvania went from 8-9 Republican/Democrats to 10-7 Republican/Democrat. The two flipped seats were in centrist districts.
In 2018, Democrats had a 3-1 majority in Iowa’s congressional caucus. The caucus is now 4-0 Republican. Trump’s tariffs may help Democrats in two closely contested House races in Iowa, but Iowa Democrats are increasingly having trouble running competitive statewide races.
Problems with the Democratic Brand:
Democrats are struggling in states where they used to be competitive including areas where there are a lot of voters in the political center. This is occurring because the policies and preferences of the Democrats on a wide range of issue – economics, Israel and Gaza, DEI, and trans women are shaped by the progressive left and are often difficult to explain or defend.
Economic Policies:
The economic policies advanced by the progressive wing are often not economically or politically viable. The need to satisfy progressive whims shaped Biden Administration policy proposals and prevented the adoption of permanent reforms, which could survive future policy changes enacted by a conservative government.
Here are some examples of problems associated with progressive economic policies, which could continue to reduce support for the Democratic party.
Centrist Democrats, including former Obama Administration Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers warned that Biden spending and trade proposals were inflationary. The progressives consistently slammed centrist democrats efforts to pay for the new spending.
Two cornerstones of the Biden Administration student debt policy, strongly supported by the progressive wing of the party were a unilateral student loan discharge program and expanded Income Driven Repayment Loan options. The Supreme court found the student loan discharge executive order exceeded the president’s authority and courts also restricted the Biden-era SAVE IDR program. The Trump Administration has further reduced IDR program options. This alternative approach would have been faired to both student borrowers and taxpayers.
The Democratic party is deeply divided on health care. The progressive wing of the party remains committed to Medicare for all or similar proposals even though this approach would make many working people with premium health plans worse off and could be dismantled or modified by a future conservative administration. The Biden Administration did not do much on health care despite it being a favorable issue for Democrats. Vice President Harris was unable to score points on health care even though Trump acknowledged he only had concepts of a plan. Go here for some practical ways to substantially improve health care in the United States, proposals which would receive support from centrists in both parties and Independents.
Progressive proposals for drastically higher tax rates on capital gains aren’t as progressive as they seem. True rich people pay more in capital gains taxes than poor people who lack wealth. But really rich people often avoid capital gains taxes by not selling and giving a higher basis to their heirs. A high capital gains rate on a person selling a modest business at retirement is not progressive especially if that small businessperson is relying on capital gains to fund retirement. The capital gains on real estate prevents many older taxpayers from selling their home reducing the inventory of homes on the market. Go here for a better approach to capital gains taxation, an approach that is not supported by progressives who favor higher rates for the rich.
Mideast policy and toleration of antisemitism on U.S. campuses.
The Democrats are deeply divided on Israel and the war in the middle east. Many Democrats tried to balance their support for Israel with sympathy for Palestinians and even sympathy for Hamas. The approach didn’t work politically and led to bad Mideast policy.
The fact that many progressive Democrats supported Hamas in Congress and on campus immediately after October 7 was offensive.
The quickest way to end the war in Gaza was to persuade Hamas that they had to release the hostages and leave Gaza for Qatar. Votes against Israel by Democratic “progressives” like Summer Lee, AOC, and Ossoff sent the message that support for Israel is eroding and Hamas should hold out.
The Trump Administration is allowing a lawsuit in U.S. courts alleging UNWRA assisted Hamas on October 7 to go forward. The Biden Administration, under pressure from the left, blocked this lawsuit. It is especially important to resolve this issue because currently Israel is being pressured to allow continued UNWRA access to Gaza.
Democrats have a point the Trump Administration is overreaching by targeting funds to Harvard and other universities. But antisemitism is rampant on college campuses and Democrats have been largely indifferent.
Progressive Blind support for DEI and Affirmative Action:
Critics of DEI have basically persuaded a majority of Americans that DEI is a form of discrimination, which leads to decisions not being made on the basis of merit.
Consider the requirement of a DEI statement for the selection of mechanical engineer aerospace jobs.
Consider the case of an Asian American computer science superstar who is winning coding competitions against adults and creating marketable apps while in High School who is rejected by 16 universities. (Applicant hired by Google after Freshman year for a job usually given to people with advanced computer degree.)
Progressive intolerance on Social Issues:
In general, Republicans are less tolerant the Democrats on social issue. For example, Republican complaints on trans woman are often mean spirited and opportunistic. For example, there is no basis for the Trump decision banning trans people from serving in the military.
However, the Democrats are not the paragon of tolerance.
Reasonable people can conclude that trans women should not be allowed to compete in women’s sports. Consider Martina Navratilova’s viewpoint.
Democrats are not smart or respectful on this issue. Consider the censure of a representative in Maine even though the shared post was about a trans girl winning a state high school championship an outcome that is central to the issue of equity in sports.
In other countries, including the UK, liberals can disagree about trans people. Democrats need to accept greater discussion on all issues.
Concluding Remarks: Centrists do not like or appreciate the performance of the Trump Administration and maybe the 2026 election will become a referendum on Trump. However, unless events under Trump’s watch really go south republican losses in 2026 will be limited and could be recouped in 2028.
There is very little political competition in most parts of the United States. The Democratic party is basically dead in many parts of the country because centrist opposition to flawed progressive policies. How can the nation adopt a long term positive agenda supported by centrists in both parties when both political parties are dominated by the political extremes and in most states and Congressional Districts there is only one viable political party?