Where Centrists Can Win in Colorado
A 2026 Strategic Assessment of Competitive U.S. House Districts for Third-Party Candidates
Colorado’s political map is shifting—and in ways that create real opportunities for centrist challengers seeking seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. This memo identifies the districts where third-party candidates could gain traction in 2026, explains the partisan dynamics shaping each race, and outlines the national forces that may open the door to a viable centrist movement. For readers interested in strategy, political realignment, and the future of nonpartisan politics, this analysis offers a clear view of what comes next.
This memo seeks to identify congressional districts in my adopted home state of Colorado that are conducive to third-party centrist challengers for seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. A previous memo advanced the argument that the most immediate path for a third party to become a viable political force and influence policy was through competing for seats in the House of Representatives, not the Senate or the presidency.
The analysis recognizes that the national political environment is extremely volatile, and events over the next year will determine the number of opportunities for a third party in Colorado and elsewhere. These events include:
worsening inflation and unemployment,
a second government shutdown and/or higher health insurance costs due to expiration of the premium tax credit,
additional actions by an impulsive president, both foreign and domestic,
a sharp movement of the Democratic Party to the left, evidenced by increased “progressive” challenges to incumbent Democrats.
Factors determining the viability of a third-party candidate in the current political environment include -- whether the seat is currently open, whether the incumbent or the incumbent’s party has been entrenched for a long time, whether recent margins have been close, and whether there are meaningful intra-party disagreements inside the district.
Four Colorado districts — CO-1, CO-2, CO-6, and CO-7 — present steep challenges for any centrist or third-party effort. The reasons are clear:
The 2024 results showed Democratic incumbents winning by comfortable, often substantial margins.
Republicans have shown little interest in contesting these seats, recruiting few strong challengers or investing meaningful resources.
Each incumbent is well aligned with the district’s median voter and faces no serious primary threat.
There is no evident ideological vacuum or dissatisfied voter bloc large enough to support an outsider candidacy.
Summary
CO-1 (Diana DeGette): Deep-blue Denver; Republicans noncompetitive.
CO-2 (Joe Neguse): Boulder-based progressive electorate; minimal GOP presence.
CO-6 (Jason Crow): Safely Democratic; Crow already occupies the pragmatic center-left lane.
CO-7 (Brittany Pettersen): Suburban district trending Democratic; GOP disengagement persists.
While political conditions can always change, the current landscape in these four districts offers few immediate opportunities for a centrist challenger in 2026.
Potentially Contestable Districts
The following four districts — CO-3, CO-4, CO-5, and CO-8 — are the most important to watch in Colorado.
Congressional District (CO-3)
Colorado’s 3rd District is Republican leaning but has been closely contested. Lauren Boebert left the district after barely winning in 2022. Jeff Hurd, a Republican closer to the center, won a close race in 2024. The Democrats should nominate a centrist for another close contest in 2026. It may be difficult for a centrist to position themselves from the other two candidates but many voters in this district are unhappy with the extremes of their party
Congressional District (CO-4)
Colorado’s 4th District remains strongly Republican, but its internal dynamics are less settled than the partisan label suggests. Rep. Lauren Boebert is the incumbent but she was opposed by more than 50 percent of Republican primary voters in a crowded 2024, field.
The Democratic primary contest appears to be a close contest between Eileen Laubacher a centrist and Trisha Calvarese a progressive. A centrist candidate has a strong chance if Democrats nominate Calvarese.
Congressional District (CO-5)
Colorado’s 5th District is dominated by the Republican Party, and its ideological center of gravity sits firmly on the conservative side. Incumbent Jeff Crank, aligned with national movement-conservative and MAGA-adjacent organizations, secured his position by consolidating institutional right-wing support and faces no significant primary opposition in 2026 but a quarter of Republican primary voters opposed him 202m in 2024
On the Democratic side, the field is unusually large — Zurit Horowitz, Jessica Killin, Justice Lord, Joe Reagan, Jamey Smith, and Michelle Tweed — though Killin stands out for her early fundraising strength and establishment backing. The district leans republican and a centrist candidate might be more viable than the Democrat.
Congressional District (CO-8)
Colorado’s 8th District, created in 2022, has oscillated between the parties and features a demographically and ideologically mixed electorate. Republican incumbent Gabe Evans faces only nominal primary challengers, while the Democratic primary is considerably more active.
State Representatives Shannon Bird and Manny Rutinel are the leading contenders, with Bird presenting a pragmatic, centrist profile and Rutinel reflecting more activist, progressive instincts. Additional entrants — including Evan Munsing and State Treasurer Dave Young — add further ideological variation.
Neither party is fully entrenched in this District. A smart well-funded centrist would have a substantial chance of winning this district.
Conclusion
The current political environment suggests that centrist candidates in Colorado are most viable in districts where one or both major parties nominate figures outside the ideological mainstream — for example, a strongly MAGA-aligned Republican or a progressive or relatively untested Democratic nominee.
Centrist candidates are viable in four districts – CO 3, CO 4, CO 5, and CO 8. CO 3 is the most difficult race for a third-party centrist. CO-4, CO-5, and CO-8 are highly fluid. All three districts have an extremely conservative Republican incumbent. A third party centrist would immediately become viable if the Democratic party nominee is a progressive.
National dynamics could dramatically reshape the landscape. Should both major parties continue to exhibit dysfunction — through fiscal standoffs, government shutdowns, intraparty conflict, and an inability to reach durable policy agreements – opportunities for centrist third party candidates could expand and elections could be framed as a referendum on the viability of the two major parties.
A centrist party would need to articulate a positive, comprehensive governing agenda that distinguishes its approach clearly from both Republican and Democratic orthodoxies, especially on economic policy. Remember James Carville’s famous advice – “It’s the economy stupid.”
Future Work
This analysis of the political environment in Colorado is a first step. Additional statewide studies and a master file of all 435 races behind a paywall will be available soon.
I am also developing a comprehensive national third-party domestic policy agenda which will clarify how a centrist movement can differentiate itself substantively from both major parties. This agenda will build upon and integrate themes from a number of my existing policy posts on economic reform.
· See How the 2024 Tax Law Quietly Reshaped Debt for Young Doctors.
· See A Brief Note on the ACA Subsidy Debate.
· See The Life Cycle Inconsistency at the Center of U.S. Saving Policy.
The goal is to create a coherent set of resources so that people in the middle of the political spectrum can once again have a voice and our nation will move forward in a better direction.
Although today’s post focuses on politics, much of my work also covers real-world personal finance—how taxes, benefits, healthcare rules, and debt shape the decisions households actually face. Personal finance content can be obtained at the post below.
👉 https://bernsteinbook1958.substack.com/p/personal-finance-in-the-real-world
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