Pennsylvania could play a central role in determining control of the House, with four competitive Republican-held districts and a popular Democratic governor leading the statewide ticket.
Key Findings
· PA-07 and PA-08, both narrowly flipped by Republicans in 2024, are the clearest tests of the national environment.
· One Democratic pickup among PA-07, PA-08 and PA-10 would be important; winning two would make Pennsylvania a major contributor to a House majority.
· PA-10 is less useful as a national indicator because it depends heavily on the unusual contrast between Scott Perry and Janelle Stelson.
· PA-01 is the most difficult Democratic target because Brian Fitzpatrick substantially outperformed the presidential ticket in 2024.
· Democrats have nominated mostly centrist or pragmatic candidates who may benefit from Governor Josh Shapiro’s potential coattails.
Here are concise summaries of the four races.
PA-01: Fitzpatrick’s brand faces a strong test
Pennsylvania’s First District includes Bucks County and part of Montgomery County. Biden won it in 2020, and Harris narrowly carried it in 2024, yet Republican Brian Fitzpatrick defeated Ashley Ehasz by nearly 13 points after surviving the 2018 Democratic wave.
Fitzpatrick, a former FBI agent and federal prosecutor, has represented the district since 2017 and chairs the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. He supports Ukraine and election reform, opposed Trump’s expansion of the Iran war and voted against the final 2025 tax-and-spending law because of its Medicaid provisions. He also supported extending ACA subsidies.
Democrat Bob Harvie taught social studies for 26 years before serving in Falls Township government and winning two countywide elections. A pro-labor Democrat, he defeated a progressive primary opponent while emphasizing affordability and incremental health-care reform.
Harvie is also challenging Fitzpatrick over data centers. He wants a moratorium until protections are established for utility customers, water supplies and communities, while criticizing Fitzpatrick’s support for federal industry incentives and an Amazon project in Falls Township. Their campaign has become personal, with disputes over debates and a federal contracting investigation that Harvie says does not involve him.
Fitzpatrick’s bipartisan reputation remains formidable. Because Harris carried the district while Fitzpatrick won decisively, his defeat or a small victory margin would indicate a large Democratic night.
PA-07: A Working-Class Fight in the Lehigh Valley
Pennsylvania’s Seventh District covers the Lehigh Valley, including Allentown, Bethlehem and Easton, alongside warehouses, suburbs and rural Carbon County. Biden carried it narrowly in 2020; Trump won by about three points in 2024. Republican Ryan Mackenzie nevertheless defeated Democratic Representative Susan Wild by only about one point.
Mackenzie, an NYU graduate with a Harvard MBA, worked for the Labor Department and served 12 years in the Pennsylvania House. He is a conventional Trump-aligned conservative who supported the 2025 tax-and-spending law but broke with Republican leaders to support extending ACA subsidies.
Democrat Bob Brooks did not attend college or previously hold office. A former Bethlehem firefighter, he now leads Pennsylvania’s firefighters union. His economic-populist campaign emphasizes wages, unions, health care and higher taxes on wealthy individuals and corporations while also stressing border security and public safety. His endorsements range from Governor Josh Shapiro and the Blue Dog PAC to Bernie Sanders and the Working Families Party. J Street and the Jewish Democratic Council back Brooks; AIPAC supports Mackenzie.
Both candidates favor tighter oversight of data centers, reducing that issue’s partisan importance. Mackenzie portrays Brooks as too far left; Brooks calls Mackenzie Trump’s “lapdog.” Because Mackenzie won narrowly and ran behind Trump, PA-07 could change parties without a Democratic wave.
PA-08: A Local Candidate Tests a Republican Shift
Pennsylvania’s Eighth District includes Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, former coal communities, the Poconos and extensive rural territory. Trump carried it by about nine points in 2024, but Republican Rob Bresnahan defeated six-term Democrat Matt Cartwright by only 1.6 points.
Bresnahan, a University of Scranton graduate, ran his family’s electrical-contracting company and developed real estate before entering Congress. He supported Trump’s 2025 tax-and-spending law and opposed withdrawing American forces from hostilities with Iran, but broke with Republican leaders on ACA subsidies, federal employees’ bargaining rights and insulin costs.
Democrat Paige Cognetti has a Harvard MBA and experience in international development, investment management and state government. She won Scranton’s mayoralty as an independent after a corruption scandal and later became a Democrat. During her administration, Scranton left three decades of state financial oversight and regained an investment-grade credit rating. Her campaign emphasizes competent government, abortion rights, broader health coverage, unions and fiscal management.
Cognetti attacks Bresnahan over congressional stock trading and data centers. Bresnahan advocated a trading ban but continued making numerous trades through advisers. He promotes data-center investment while supporting local zoning authority and owning related investments. Cognetti opposes pending projects because of their possible effects on utilities and taxpayers.
Cognetti’s local record gives Democrats a plausible route despite the district’s Republican presidential preference.
PA-10: Perry and Stelson Meet Again
Pennsylvania’s Tenth District includes Harrisburg, York, growing suburbs and conservative rural communities. Trump carried it by about five points in 2024, but Republican Scott Perry defeated Democrat Janelle Stelson by only 1.2 points—roughly 5,000 votes. The race is a tossup.
Perry, an Army National Guard combat veteran and former construction-business owner, previously chaired the House Freedom Caucus. He is a strong Trump ally who supported efforts to overturn the 2020 election and backed the 2025 tax-and-spending law, including its Medicaid provisions.
Stelson spent nearly four decades as a television journalist, giving her exceptional districtwide recognition. A Republican until 2023, she campaigns as a centrist Democrat supporting abortion rights, Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act, NATO and continued aid to Ukraine and Israel. She has criticized an open-ended war with Iran.
Foreign policy provides a sharp contrast. Perry opposes extensive commitments to Ukraine and NATO. Although politically supportive of Israel and military pressure on Iran, he voted against the 2024 Israel aid package because of his opposition to foreign spending, putting him at odds with AIPAC.
Independent Isabelle Harman has no apparent path to victory but could siphon anti-Perry votes. This genuine battleground will be close. Stelson is unusually well suited to the district, and her victory would likely strengthen the House’s centrist caucuses.
Concluding Thoughts: PA-07 and PA-08 are the bellwethers for control of the House. Eight is Democrats’ cleanest pickup opportunity; Seven is a knife-fight. Ten turns on candidate-specific wildcards. And One is the dam breaker: Fitzpatrick probably does not lose unless a blue wave is sweeping across the country.