Washington’s 3rd District is a strong place to begin this series: it is genuinely competitive and, this cycle, the two candidates who advanced are serious, relatively moderate figures. Trump carried the district 50.3–47.0 in 2024, yet Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeated Republican Joe Kent 51.7–47.9 after winning by less than a point in 2022. Cook rates WA-03 R+2 and the race a Toss Up.
Perez is an unusual Democrat: a Reed College economics graduate who co-owned an auto-repair and machine shop with her husband before entering Congress. Republican John Braun is also formidable: Washington Senate minority leader, president of a family-owned emergency-vehicle manufacturer, retired Navy captain, and a University of Washington electrical-engineering graduate with an MBA and master’s degree in manufacturing engineering from the University of Michigan.
The immediate question is who wins. But WA-03 is interesting for another reason. After Republicans twice nominated the more polarizing Kent, this year voters have two credible candidates who appear reasonably close to the district’s political center.
Washington uses a top-two primary, with all candidates on the same ballot. Braun finished first with 39.7%, Perez received 36.4%, and progressive Democrat Brent Hennrich took 16.7%. Democratic candidates collectively received 54.8% of the vote, compared with 42.8% for Republicans. That looks encouraging for Perez—but Hennrich has said he will not support her in November. Perez needs many voters on her left without losing the crossover appeal that has kept her in office.
This week showed how difficult that balancing act can be. Perez and Jared Golden angered Democratic leaders by helping Republicans pass a procedural rule. Two days later, Perez again broke with most Democrats, supporting legislation restricting certain federal funding for universities participating in boycotts of Israel. Only 33 Democrats supported the bill; 167 opposed it, including Hakeem Jeffries.
For me, the underlying issue is fundamental. An AJC/Hillel survey found that 42% of current or recent Jewish college students said they had experienced antisemitism on campus. I do not believe American universities receiving federal support should institutionally boycott Israel—a country built to a remarkable degree by immigrants and refugees. I discuss that history in Israel as Refuge: Ethiopia and Melat Kiros—Selective Focus.
Perez is therefore a useful canary in the coal mine. Jeffries is already facing unease on his left, with a growing group of Democratic nominees declining to commit to supporting him for Speaker. Yet he may also need independent-minded Democrats such as Perez to win the majority in the first place. If Democrats capture the House narrowly without enough members like her from competitive districts, the caucus could tilt further left—and Jeffries’s own position could become more vulnerable. If Perez wins, meanwhile, he may have to govern with members whose political survival depends partly on bucking the party leadership. Either way, the coalition that could make Jeffries Speaker may also make the House extraordinarily difficult for him to manage.
WA-03 matters because it could help decide control of the House, could impact the vote for Speaker, and because in this cycle voters have a choice between two strong, relatively moderate candidates.