The Opening for a Pragmatic Center-Left Movement

Can an independent defeat a Democratic-Socialist in a deep-blue district?

Key Findings

• Democratic-socialist candidates won several deep-blue primaries with support from only a small share of the districts’ general-election voters.

• A pragmatic center-left independent could potentially unite unaffiliated voters, Republicans and conventional Democrats.

• A small independent bloc could hold substantial leverage in a closely divided House, including in the election of the Speaker.

• Shimon Blau’s qualification for the CO-1 ballot provides the first test of this strategy, although he remains a long shot.

The 2026 primaries have created a genuine opening in several of the country’s safest Democratic congressional districts. Five democratic-socialist or movement-left candidates defeated more conventional Democrats or captured seats previously held by them:

• Colorado 1: Melat Kiros defeated 15-term incumbent Diana DeGette.

• New York 7: Claire Valdez won the open seat of retiring liberal Nydia Velázquez.

• New York 10: Brad Lander defeated Dan Goldman.

• New York 13: Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated Adriano Espaillat.

• Pennsylvania 3: Chris Rabb won the nomination in one of the nation’s most Democratic districts.

These candidates are not identical, but the results mark a clear movement toward democratic socialism, activist politics and, in several races, a much more hostile position toward Israel and American military support for it.

However, primary voters are not identical to general election voters. A Bipartisan Policy Center analysis of nationwide voter files found that unaffiliated voters averaged 23 percent of general-election electorates but only 10 percent of primary electorates; primary voters were also five years older on average. Brookings found that Democratic and Republican primary voters alike regarded themselves as more ideological than the general-election voters in their districts.

The district-level numbers on turnout reinforce the point:

• New York 7, 10 and 13: Only 67,000 to 84,000 ballots were cast in each Democratic primary. The winners received 32,790 to 55,060 votes, equal to roughly 15 to 20 percent of the votes cast in the corresponding 2024 general elections.

• Colorado 1: Kiros received 83,685 votes, about 24 percent of the 345,639 votes cast in the district in 2024.

• Pennsylvania 3: Rabb’s 65,775 primary votes equaled 19 percent of the district’s 2024 general-election vote.

State rules determining who is eligible to vote in a primary partly determine the difference in composition between primary and general election electorates. New York and Pennsylvania have closed primaries where only voters registered to a party can participate. Colorado allows registered Independents to vote in the primary of their choice.

None of this invalidates the victories or proves that the nominees would lose a referendum on their programs. It does show that the primary did not establish the existence of broad electorate support for Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, abolition of ICE, or the new left’s position on Israel.

In a one-party district, many November voters support the Democratic nominee because the Republican alternative is unacceptable, not because they endorse every element of the nominee’s agenda.

A Republican, especially a modern Republican, will not win in these districts. A pragmatic, center-left independent may nevertheless have a path to victory.

She could seek most Republican voters, a large share of unaffiliated voters and enough conventional liberals, pro-Israel Democrats and fiscally cautious progressives to form a majority.

The candidate could remain liberal on abortion, civil rights, environmental protection, health-care access and the safety net while offering economically feasible policies, support for Israel and less ideological politics.

The potential constituency for this hypothetical third-party candidate extends beyond the five 2026 races. Long-serving Democrats in safe or strongly Democratic seats—including Katherine Clark in Massachusetts, Chellie Pingree in Maine, Frank Pallone in New Jersey, Adam Smith in Washington and Brad Sherman in California—now vote well to the left of the national electorate.

Voteview’s congress-by-congress estimates indicate that several, particularly Pallone, Smith and Sherman, have moved materially left during their careers. A credible center-left movement could eventually test whether these districts’ broader electorates have moved as far as their dominant Democratic primary electorates.

The claim that congressional politics are inevitably binary – vote for Jeffries or Johnson for speaker -- overlooks the potential power of an independent block. Recent elections for House Speaker demonstrate the potential leverage held by a small number of independents in the House.

Kevin McCarthy required 15 ballots in January 2023, and the House required four more ballots to elect Mike Johnson that October. In January 2025, Johnson won 218–215, with one vote cast for Tom Emmer. One additional vote for another named candidate would have prevented Johnson from winning on that ballot.

The Constitution does not require the Speaker to be a member of Congress. Representatives may vote for any individual. I, David Bernstein, the author and publisher of this blog could legally be elected Speaker of the House. This will be the plot of my new Netflix TV series, stay tuned.

The possibility of an independent Speaker, combined with an alternative platform that differs substantially from both the Republican and Democratic agendas, provides the rationale for an independent candidacy. Such a candidate must offer more than opposition to the movement left; the campaign needs a coherent governing program capable of attracting voters who are dissatisfied with both parties.

I have begun developing such a platform and have made substantial progress on four issues: health insurance, student debt, retirement saving and capital-gains taxation. Democratic proposals in these areas too often promise benefits that cannot realistically be financed or sustained. Republican approaches frequently acknowledge legitimate fiscal and economic problems but respond with repeal without an adequate replacement, abrupt benefit reductions, or policies that shift excessive risk onto households least able to bear it. The proposals are summarized, with links to the complete papers, in Four Policy Papers for a Third-Party Economic Agenda.

The first test of the hypothesis that a third-party candidate can win in a deep-blue district will occur in CO-1. On July 24, the Colorado secretary of state determined that 1,918 of the signatures submitted by Shimon Blau were valid, exceeding the 1,500 required and placing him on the November ballot. Blau describes himself as socially liberal and fiscally conservative and entered after Kiros’s victory. Blau is a late entrant and remains a long shot but now that we understand the contours of the Democratic-Socialistic threat I expect more such candidacies in 2028 as the Democratic-Socialist threat spreads and becomes more evident earlier in the process.

Sources and Method

Primary-electorate composition: Bipartisan Policy Center, “The Effect of Open Primaries on Turnout and Representation” (2024).

Primary voters and ideology: Brookings, “The 2018 Primaries Project: The Ideology of Primary Voters.”

New York rules and results: New York State Board of Elections registration deadlines and 2026 unofficial primary returns.

Colorado primary participation: Colorado Legislative Council, “Primary Election Law” (2026), and secretary of state ballot-return data reported after the primary.

Congressional ideology: Voteview, congress-by-congress Nokken-Poole first-dimension estimates; career comparisons calculated from the current member dataset.

Blau ballot qualification: The Colorado Sun, July 24, 2026.

Election comparisons use the winning 2026 Democratic primary vote divided by total votes cast in the corresponding 2024 U.S. House general election. Percentages are rounded; 2026 results are current through July 24, 2026.